Economic and Financial Development in Malaysia in the Third Quarter of 2008

Adapted from Bank Negara Malaysia (Nov 08)

1.Growth moderated in the third quarter (Q3).

a.The Malaysia economy registered a growth of 4.7% in Q3 (2Q 08 : 6.7%).
b.Net real exports of goods and services declined by 14.8%, compared with a growth of 20% in the 2Q 08.
c.Growth was supported by domestic demand, which increased by 6.5% (2Q 08: 8.3%) following continued expansion in private and public consumption.
d.The private consumption growth at 8.1% (2Q 08: 9%) was supported by the effects of the bonus payment to civil servants, festive season spending and cash rebates payment for fuel subsidy.
e.The public consumption increased by 6.9% (2Q 08: 10.9%) on continued high expenditure for emoluments and supplies and services.
f.Investment was supported by higher public development expenditure in particular for the transportation, agriculture and rural development, and education sectors.

2.Sectors Analysis.

a.Services Sectors sustained its strong expansion, increasing by 7.1% (2Q 08: 8.2%)
i.Higher finance and insurance sub-sector growth and strong consumption activities.
b.Manufacturing sector growth was weaker at 1.8% (2Q 08: 5.6%)
i.Weakness in the export-oriented industries. Domestic oriented industries register strong growth mainly by supporting transport equipment, construction related products and food industries.
c.Agriculture sector grew at a more moderate pace at 3% (2Q 08: 6%)
i.Deceleration in production of palm oil.
d.Construction sector moderated further at 1.2% growth (2Q 08: 3.9%)
i.Weaker activity in the residential and civil engineering segments and higher prices of building materials.
e.Mining Sector growth was sluggish at -0.3% growth (2Q 08: -0.5%)
i.Lower natural gas output.

3.Consumer Price Index (CPI).

a.CPI increased to 8.4% in the 3Q (2Q 08: 4.8%).
b.Higher inflation due to higher retail prices for petrol and diesel, higher electricity tariff and higher food prices.



4.Trade Balance

a.Trade balance in 3Q registered another record surplus at RM41.6bil (2Q 08: RM40.6bil).
b.Exports growth moderated, but remained firm at 16.9% (2Q 08: 20.8%) supported by commodities and resource-based manufactured products.
c.Gross Imports increased by 10.3% (2Q 08: 9.9%) due to higher intermediate and consumption imports.

5.Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs)

a.Net FDIs amounted to RM2.7bil in 3Q (2Q 08: RM8.6bil).
i.Mainly channeled to the services, oil and gas and manufacturing sectors.
b.Net FDIs outflow at RM16.1bil (2Q 08: -RM3.6bil)
i.Mainly channeled to the services and manufacturing sectors.

6.International Reserves

a.International reserves amounted to US$99.7bil as at Nov 14 (US$109.7bil as at Sept 30).
b.The reserves position sufficient to finance 8.1 months of retained imports and 3.7 times the short term external debt.

7.Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)

a.OPR was left unchanged at 3.5% throughout the 3Q.
b.Average lending rate softened to 5.96% as at Sept.
c.Loan applications and approvals moderated due to lower demand for new loans from business and household sectors.

8.Exchange rate

a.The US dollar strengthened following the de-leveraging by US financial institutions in the international financial markets and the inflows of funds into US treasuries.
b.Ringgit depreciated by 5.5% against US dollar and 7.3% against the Japanese Yen during the 3Q.
c.Ringgit appreciated against the pound sterling (4.6%) and the EURO (3.9%) indicates that rapid deteriorating economic conditions in the EU.

9.Banking system remained resilient

a.Banking sector remained resilient, supported by strong capitalization, sustained profitability and continued improvement in the non-performing loans.
b. Net NPL ratio remained unchanged at 2.4% at end-October 2008.


10.Economic impact of global financial crisis

a.Despite aggressive injection of liquidity worldwide, financial markets have not normalized and continued to remain highly volatile.
b.Inflationary concerns have receded due to sharp deceleration in growth and decline in commodity prices.
c.Export sector will be affected while the continued volatility across financial markets may dampen business outlook.